Is Canelo Vs. Crawford A Upset In The Making?

Boxing fans love the mega fight, and in September 2025, two pound-for-pound greats are set to face each other as unified super-middleweight world champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (62-2-2, 39 KOs) will defend his WBA, WBC, and WBO titles against Terence “Bud” Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs).

The champion, Canelo Alvarez, is a boxer-puncher who has been a dominant champion in the super-middleweight division for the past four years, while the challenger, Bud Crawford, is a skilled ring technician who is a two-weight undisputed world champion.

Prior to facing Crawford, Canelo is set to take on IBF champion William Scull. If Canelo does what he’s expected to do in May, then the September bout will transition from a super-fight to a legacy fight for Crawford.

Back in July 2024, Canelo Alvarez was stripped of his IBF title because he failed to defend it against his mandatory, William Scull. Three months later, Scull defeated Vladimir Shishkin and won the vacant IBF strap.

If Canelo beats Scull in May, he will once again reign supreme as the undisputed super-middleweight champion. If this scenario plays out, that means four months later when Terence Crawford faces Canelo Alvarez, Crawford will have the opportunity to become a three-weight undisputed world champion.

After his signature win over Errol Spence Jr back in August 2023, Terence Crawford did a interview with TMZ Sports where he was asked about a potential clash with Canelo Alvarez. Back then, Crawford had zero interest in facing Canelo as he answered the question with a direct response.

“No, not at all. Canelo really doesn’t interest me because of the size difference.”

Terence Crawford had a change of heart after attending Canelo’s bouts against Jermell Charlo and Jaime Munguia. After the Canelo vs Munguia clash, Crawford admitted that if he was in the ring with Canelo on that particular night, he saw some things he could have definitely taken advantage of.

Crawford proceeded to consistently call out Canelo until a fight agreement was reached. Recently, during a interview with Fight Hub TV, Crawford’s trainer BoMac McIntyre, declined when asked to break the fight down, but he did hint at Crawford identifying some type of weakness in Canelo’s game.

Back in September 2013 Floyd “Money” Mayweather defeated Canelo Alvarez with speed, lateral movement, elusiveness, and landing sharp counter shots. Nine years later, Dmitry Bivol defeated Canelo by controlling the distance, utilizing an active jab, and volume punching with straight shots.

Canelo Alvarez is a legendary champion who is an all-time great. His blueprint to accumulating 60+ wins has been basically the same throughout his illustrious 19-year career.

Canelo will press forward using a high active guard. He applies constant pressure while landing the right hand, the left hook, and vicious shots to the body. He physically and mentally wears his opponents down until he gets the stoppage or the unanimous decision victory.

Outside of Canelo’s slow starts and stamina issues, Terence Crawford must see something else he can capitalize on, but the question is, what does he see? Similar to Spence, Canelo has a predictable offense.

In his bout against Errol Spence Jr, Crawford was aware of Spence’s routine offensive attack, and he was able to stay one step ahead. Due to the fact that Canelo has a routine offensive attack, does Crawford believe he can dictate a fight against Canelo the same way he did when he faced Spence?

When it comes to ring IQ, Crawford is one of the most knowledgeable boxers in the game. Since he’s calling out Canelo, he must have full confidence in his game plan. We don’t know what Crawford’s game plan is, but hypothetically speaking, how can Terence Crawford defeat Canelo Alvarez?

Canelo is a bull as it relates to the way he presses forward with his offensive attack. With that being said, the first thing Crawford will have to use is his three-inch reach advantage to implement an effective jab. Canelo is traditionally a slow starter, so an active jab could win the first couple of rounds for Crawford.

Terence Crawford is a versatile switch-hitter who has to execute when it comes to dictating the range, and keeping the match in the center of the ring. Crawford will use lateral movement and rely on his reflexes to make Canelo miss, then make him pay.

Crawford’s path to victory will include discipline, being technically sound, and defensively responsible. Crawford has to box from the outside, his timing must be on point, and his counter shots have to be sharp and accurate. He has to control the pace of the fight by landing his offense and then angling out.

Canelo Alvarez is a juggernaut, but as the two losses on his resume indicate, Canelo is an extraordinary boxer who can be beaten. The two key requirements to defeating Canelo are to be perfect and to frustrate him.

In their bouts versus Canelo Alvarez, both Floyd “Money” Mayweather and Dmitry Bivol were able to be perfect and frustrate Canelo. As a result, both Mayweather and Bivol earned decisive victories.

Terence “Bud” Crawford has the ring intelligence needed to be perfect, and he has a skill set that could be both problematic and frustrating for Canelo Alvarez. If Crawford is able execute his game plan properly, fight fans may be set to witness an historic upset in September.