Russian ships move from Syria base amid doubts over future

Russian naval vessels appear to have temporarily left their main port in Syria, satellite images reviewed by BBC Verify show, amid continuing uncertainty about Moscow’s military future in the country after the fall of its ally, Bashar al-Assad.

Images taken by Maxar on 10 December show some ships have left Tartous naval base since Sunday and are currently sitting offshore in the Mediterranean Sea.

Meanwhile, other photos taken on the same day show activity continuing at Russia’s main airbase in Syria, Khmeimim, with jets clearly visible on the tarmac.

On Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow would enter talks with incoming authorities about Russia’s future military presence.

“Everything possible is now being done to get in touch with those involved in ensuring security and, of course, our military is also taking all the necessary precautions,” he told reporters in Moscow.

He previously warned that it was “premature” to speculate on the bases’ future.

“You know that, of course, we maintain contacts with those who control the situation in Syria now. This is necessary because we have our bases there and our diplomatic office [embassy]. And of course, ensuring the safety and security of our facilities are of utmost importance,” he told reporters.

The Tartous naval facility houses elements of the Black Sea Fleet and is Russia’s only repair and replenishment hub in the Mediterranean. Established by the Soviet Union in the 1970s, it was expanded and modernised by Russia in 2012 as the Kremlin began to increase its support for President Assad’s regime.

It allows Russian vessels to remain in the Mediterranean without having to return to ports in the Black Sea via the Turkish Straits. It is also a deep-water port, meaning it can host submarines from Moscow’s nuclear fleet, according to the US Naval Institute.

The new satellite images show Moscow has at least temporarily brought its ships out of the port, with two guided missile frigates moored about 13km (eight miles) off the Syrian coast. It is unclear where the remainder of the fleet – pictured in earlier images – currently is.

It is also unclear whether their departure is part of a permanent withdrawal from Tartous. In recent weeks, satellite images have repeatedly shown naval vessels coming and going from the port.

Mike Plunkett from the open-source defence intelligence analysts at Janes organisation noted that the Russian movements appeared to have been “conducted to ensure that their ships are not vulnerable to attack”.

“Whether they are worried about attack from the Syrian rebels or collateral damage from any Israeli strike on Syrian assets in Tartus is unknown,” he added.

Frederik Van Lokeren, a former Belgian navy captain and analyst, told BBC Verify that it appeared the Russian vessels were now in a holding pattern while Moscow deliberated on its next move.

“They’re effectively in limbo at the moment, because they don’t quite know what’s going to happen,” Mr Van Lokeren said.

“Obviously, since they’re lingering there, it seems that Russia is not willing to withdraw all its naval vessels out of the area just yet, which might be an indication that they’re negotiating with regional partners to see where they can redeploy these vessels.”

Analysts have speculated that if Russia is forced to close the Tartous naval facility, it could redeploy its presence to Tobruk in Libya. The region is controlled by the Kremlin-backed Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and already hosts some Russian airbases.

But withdrawing from Tartous would be immensely costly, and Mr Van Lokeren noted that the move would also bring Russian vessels closer to Nato bases, making them easier to track. For now, he said, there is no indication that Russia is moving the necessary naval assets to remove equipment from Tartous.

Meanwhile, since 2015 the Khmeimim air base has become a key part of Russia’s operations across the Middle East and Africa. It has been used to launch devastating air strikes on cities across Syria in support of the Assad regime, while also using it to fly military contractors to Africa.

Satellite images reviewed by BBC Verify showed at least two large jets – identified by Janes as IL-76 transport aircraft – still sitting on the tarmac at the base on 10 December. Helicopters could also be seen at the base in the images.

Janes also notes that air defence systems deployed at the site remain visible in the north-western corner of the image.

Dara Massicot, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said on X on Sunday that an evacuation of the airbase would involve a massive airlift requiring far more jets than those visible in the satellite images, suggesting that Moscow does not plan to evacuate imminently.

“When Russian forces deployed to Syria in 2015, they flew almost 300 sorties in two weeks, and that was before base expansion,” she wrote on X.

“A change signifying a major evacuation will be clear,” she added.

Despite the current holding pattern Russian forces appear to be displaying, the fall of the Assad regime represents a major blow to the Kremlin’s ambitions in the region. During a 2017 visit to Khmeimim air base, President Vladimir Putin made clear that he intended for Moscow’s presence to be a long-term project.

Reflecting on the situation, an influential pro-Kremlin military blogger Rybar warned on Telegram that Russia’s power-projection exercise in the region was in serious danger.

“Russia’s military presence in the Middle East region is hanging by a thread,” he concluded.

Additional reporting by Paul Cusiac. Graphics by Mark Edwards.